August 2024 Investment Summary

A positive month for the Passive range with returns ranging from +0.80%* for Passive 4 to +0.97%* for Passive 2.
*P Acc share class with data sourced from FE analytics as at 31 August 2024.

August 2024 was a volatile and more modest month for portfolios generally.

Most major equity markets saw gains in August, despite seeing a sharp sell-off at the start of the month as US growth fears coincided with a surge in the Japanese Yen prompting a 12% daily decline in the MSCI Japan Index. The US, European and UK markets led the gains, as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed the month back at all-time highs. Utilities led the sector-wise performance while healthcare lagged. The FTSE 100 performed well with cautious optimism for UK markets in the second half of 2024, Stoxx Europe 600 Index performed well attributed to the temporary boost to French services from the 2024 Paris Olympics.

The US Presidential election race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains particularly close, with recent polls showing both candidates tied in key swing states. Government bond prices were higher as the ten-year Treasury yield edged down from 3.99% to 3.91% over the month. The US economy grew 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 higher than the 2% forecast. The Federal Reserve have signalled their readiness to start cutting interest rates in September, stating ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’ with potential for a larger than usual 0.5% rate cut next month. Cooler economic data had dampened hopes for imminent interest rate cuts, but the Feds announcement means markets are now assigning a 100% probability of a rate cut.

US labour market government data this month showed payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, lower than forecasts but up from the previous month. Despite falling below expectations, the growing activity should help temper fears of a slowing economy and US recession.US retail sales measuring the quantity of goods bought, rose more than expected, while consumer confidence rose to a six-month high in August, as households are more upbeat on the economy and inflation, offsetting concern over July’s weak jobs report. Unemployment data ticked down slightly to 4.2% from 4.3% which was its highest level since October 2021.

Tensions in the Middle East continue as hopes of a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza continue to fade. Exchanges of fire have intensified in recent weeks, as US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, stressing the urgency of reaching a deal. Fears over an all-out regional conflict remain. The conflicts impact remains limited on the global economy. Brent Crude prices have been flat falling to $80/barrel from $81/barrel in August.

Central banks are warming to the idea of rate cuts, following data supportive of loosening monetary policy. Investors and central banks continue to focus on key data points on inflation, unemployment and growth that could provide insight into the relative health of economies, while corporate earnings will remain in focus.

WS Prudential Risk Managed Passive - Tactical asset allocation activity

Our equity position is currently +1.25%, made up of a diversified basket across the US, UK, Asia and GEM. This is funded from a small Japan and China equity, European credit and cash underweights, with an overweight to US Treasuries and a slight overweight to real estate REITS.

Emerging Markets

The fund invests in emerging markets. Generally less well regulated than the UK. There is an increased chance of political and economic instability with less reliable custody, dealing and settlement arrangements. The market(s) can be less liquid. If a fund investing in markets is affected by currency exchange rates, the investment could either increase or decrease. These investments therefore carry more risk.

High Yield Bonds

The fund invests in high yield bonds. High yield bonds carry a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds, and economic conditions and interest rate movements will have a greater effect on their price. Income levels may not be achieved and the income provided may vary.

Value of Investments

The value of investments, and any income can fall, as well as rise, so you could get back less than you invested. Neither capital nor income is guaranteed.

Investments Long Term

Investments should be regarded as long term and are not suitable for money which may be needed in the short term, you should always have a sufficient cash reserve.

Property

The fund invests in Property funds, property shares or direct property. In particular the following risks will apply:- The property market is illiquid and this can, in exceptional circumstances, lead to times in which clients are unable to dispose of part or all of their holding. Property valuations are made by independent agents but are ultimately subjective and a matter of judgement. Property transaction costs are high (typically around 7% due to legal costs, valuations and stamp duty)

Performance Charges

This fund makes charges that depend on the fund's performance. For full details please refer to the fund prospectus.

Derivative Exposure

The fund invests in derivatives as part of its investment strategy, over and above their use for Efficient Portfolio Management (EPM). Investors should be aware that the use of these instruments can, under certain circumstances, increase the volatility and risk profile of the Fund beyond that expected of a fund that only invests in equities. The fund may also be exposed to the risk that the company issuing the derivative may not honour their obligations which in turn could lead to losses arising.

Umbrella Liabilities

If the liabilities of one fund were to exceed its assets, the other funds within the scheme might have to transfer across money to cover the liabilities.

New Fund

The charges and expenses may make up a higher proportion of a newly launched fund than initially estimated.

Solvency of Bond Issuers

If the fund you choose invests in bonds there is a risk that the issuer may default, resulting in a loss to the portfolio.

Returns Are Not Guaranteed

What you receive when you sell your investment is not guaranteed; it depends on how your investments perform.

Inflation

Inflation will reduce the real value of your investments in future.

Taxation and Tax Relief

Levels of taxation and tax relief are subject to change.